It turns out I had the sense of the GetLocalBounds bool wrong everywhere, so ...

chrome/browser/ui/views/status_bubble_views.cc

 // Copyright (c) 2011 The Chromium Authors. All rights reserved.
 // Use of this source code is governed by a BSD-style license that can be
 // found in the LICENSE file.
 
 #include "chrome/browser/ui/views/status_bubble_views.h"
 
 #include <algorithm>
 
 #include "base/i18n/rtl.h"
 #include "base/message_loop.h"
@@ skipping 689 matching lines @@
 
 void StatusBubbleViews::UpdateDownloadShelfVisibility(bool visible) {
   download_shelf_is_visible_ = visible;
 }
 
 void StatusBubbleViews::AvoidMouse(const gfx::Point& location) {
   // Get the position of the frame.
   gfx::Point top_left;
   views::View::ConvertPointToScreen(base_view_, &top_left);
   // Border included.
-  int window_width = base_view_->GetContentsBounds().width();
+  int window_width = base_view_->GetLocalBounds().width();
 
   // Get the cursor position relative to the popup.
   gfx::Point relative_location = location;
   if (base::i18n::IsRTL()) {
     int top_right_x = top_left.x() + window_width;
     relative_location.set_x(top_right_x - relative_location.x());
   } else {
     relative_location.set_x(
         relative_location.x() - (top_left.x() + position_.x()));
   }
@@ skipping 107 matching lines @@
 void StatusBubbleViews::SetBubbleWidth(int width) {
   size_.set_width(width);
   SetBounds(original_position_.x(), original_position_.y(),
             size_.width(), size_.height());
 }
 
 void StatusBubbleViews::CancelExpandTimer() {
   if (!expand_timer_factory_.empty())
     expand_timer_factory_.RevokeAll();
 }