It turns out I had the sense of the GetLocalBounds bool wrong everywhere, so ...

chrome/browser/chromeos/login/oobe_progress_bar.cc

 // Copyright (c) 2010 The Chromium Authors. All rights reserved.
 // Use of this source code is governed by a BSD-style license that can be
 // found in the LICENSE file.
 
 #include "chrome/browser/chromeos/login/oobe_progress_bar.h"
 
 #include "base/logging.h"
 #include "base/utf_string_conversions.h"
 #include "grit/theme_resources.h"
 #include "third_party/skia/include/core/SkBitmap.h"
@@ skipping 35 matching lines @@
     dot_filled_ = rb.GetBitmapNamed(IDR_OOBE_PROGRESS_DOT_FILLED);
     line_ = rb.GetBitmapNamed(IDR_OOBE_PROGRESS_LINE);
     line_left_ = rb.GetBitmapNamed(IDR_OOBE_PROGRESS_LINE_LEFT);
     line_right_ = rb.GetBitmapNamed(IDR_OOBE_PROGRESS_LINE_RIGHT);
 
     initialized = true;
   }
 }
 
 void OobeProgressBar::Paint(gfx::Canvas* canvas) {
-  gfx::Rect bounds = GetLocalBounds();
+  gfx::Rect bounds = GetContentsBounds();
 
   int x = bounds.x();
   int y = bounds.y();
 
   double step_width = static_cast<double>(bounds.width()) / steps_.size();
 
   for (size_t i = 0; i < steps_.size(); ++i) {
     SkBitmap* dot;
     SkColor color;
     SkBitmap* line_before = line_;
@@ skipping 65 matching lines @@
     if (steps_[i] == step) {
       progress_ = i;
       SchedulePaint();
       return;
     }
   }
   NOTREACHED();
 }
 
 }  // namespace chromeos